CollegeFootballDigestfrom CooperSearch

2016 North Carolina

8–⁠5 (5–⁠3 Atlantic Coast Conference), coached by Larry Fedora.

Schedule and results

North Carolina in 2016, game by game: lost vs. No. 18 Georgia 24–33; won at Illinois 48–23; won vs. James Madison 56–28; won vs. Pittsburgh 37–36; won at No. 12 Florida State 37–35; lost vs. No. 25 Virginia Tech 3–34; won at No. 16 Miami 20–13; won at Virginia 35–14; won vs. Georgia Tech 48–20; lost at Duke 27–28; won vs. The Citadel 41–7; lost vs. NC State 21–28; lost vs. No. 16 Stanford 23–25+34−31Lost 24–33 vs. No. 18 Georgia-9No. 18 GeorgiaWon 48–23 at Illinois+25IllinoisWon 56–28 vs. James Madison+28James MadisonWon 37–36 vs. Pittsburgh+1PittsburghWon 37–35 at No. 12 Florida State+2No. 12 Florida StateLost 3–34 vs. No. 25 Virginia Tech-31No. 25 Virginia TechWon 20–13 at No. 16 Miami+7No. 16 MiamiWon 35–14 at Virginia+21VirginiaWon 48–20 vs. Georgia Tech+28Georgia TechLost 27–28 at Duke-1DukeWon 41–7 vs. The Citadel+34The CitadelLost 21–28 vs. NC State-7NC StateLost 23–25 vs. No. 16 Stanford-2No. 16 Stanford
Each game’s margin, wins above the line and losses below; orange marks an upset win.
DateOpponentResultElo
Sep 3vs18GeorgiaL 24–⁠3347%
Sep 10atIllinoisW 48–⁠2359%
Sep 17vsJames MadisonW 56–⁠2880%
Sep 24vsPittsburghW 37–⁠3668%
Oct 1at12Florida StateW 37–⁠3535%
Oct 8vs25Virginia TechL 3–⁠3466%
Oct 15at16MiamiW 20–⁠1338%
Oct 22atVirginiaW 35–⁠1465%
Nov 5vsGeorgia TechW 48–⁠2073%
Nov 10atDukeL 27–⁠2870%
Nov 19vsThe CitadelW 41–⁠777%
Nov 25vsNC StateL 21–⁠2877%
Dec 30Bowls & playoffvs16StanfordSun BowlL 23–⁠2539%

Elo: a pregame chance from scores alone.

How it ended: Lost to Stanford 25–⁠23 in the Sun Bowl; unranked in the final AP poll; tied for 4th in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

In program history: The 27th-best season in program history by end-of-season Elo (of 127 on file).

AP poll, week by week

  1. Wk 1: 22
  2. Wk 6: 17
  3. Wk 8: 22
  4. Wk 9: 21
  5. Wk 10: 18
  6. Wk 11: 15
Record
8–⁠5
Conference
5–⁠3 tied for 4th in Atlantic Coast Conference
AP final
Unranked peak No. 15
Points
420–⁠324
Coach
Larry Fedora
Elo
1623 +13 this season
SP+ rating
15.9 No. 17 of 128; offense No. 21, defense No. 41, special teams No. 8
SRS
11.6 No. 20 of 128 in FBS
Returning
57% of last season’s EPA, No. 85 of 128
Recruiting class
No. 32 roster talent No. 29 in FBS
Offensive coordinators
Gunter Brewer and Chris Kapilovic
Defensive coordinator
Gene Chizik
Captains
Mack Hollins, Nazair Jones, Des Lawrence, Caleb Peterson, Mitchell Trubisky and Nick Weiler
Offense
Spread
Defense
4–⁠3

How good, play by play

  • Offense34th of 128
  • Defense79th of 128
  • Offense, opponent-adjusted21st of 128
  • Defense, opponent-adjusted76th of 128
EPA per playSuccessExplosivenessFBS rank
Offense0.1645%1.2434th of 128
Defense0.1446%1.0579th of 128
Opponent-adjusted0.20 off
0.12 def		47% off
44% def		—21st off
76th def
How these are measured

Play-weighted averages over games against FBS opponents; raw numbers, not adjusted for the strength of the opponent. EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changed the expected score; success rate counts plays that kept the offense on schedule; explosiveness is the average EPA on successful plays. Lower is better on defense. Ranked by EPA per play among teams that were FBS that season. The opponent-adjusted row (offense / defense) is CollegeFootballData.com’s WEPA, which accounts for who each team played.

Drives and havoc

Points per trip inside the 40Average startHavoc
Offense4.1own 3017% allowed
Defense3.0own 3114% caused

CORE rating 10.3, 23rd of 128 (offense 9.0, defense -1.3).

A trip inside the 40 is a drive that reaches the opponent’s 40-yard line; points per trip is how many it scored on average (allowed, on defense). Average start is where drives began (the defense’s line is where its opponents started). Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up. CORE is CollegeFootballData.com’s context- and opponent-adjusted rating (points better than an average team; lower is better on defense). From CollegeFootballData.com.

Leaders

Passing yardsMitch Trubisky QB3,748 yds
Passing touchdownsMitch Trubisky QB30 TD
Rushing yardsElijah Hood 858 yds
Rushing touchdownsElijah Hood 8 TD
Receiving yardsRyan Switzer WR1,112 yds
Receiving touchdownsBug Howard WR8 TD
TacklesCole Holcomb LB115 tkl
SacksMalik Carney DE5.5 sacks
InterceptionsDominquie Green S1 INT

Top recruits in the 2016 class

Jay Jay McCargo OT★★★No. 356
Tomon Fox WDE★★★No. 359
Patrice Rene CB★★★No. 412
Logan Byrd PRO★★★No. 412
Chazz Surratt DUAL★★★No. 412

247Sports composite rankings via CollegeFootballData.com; national rank in the class.

The 2016 class by position

SignedStarsRating
Quarterbacks23.00.881
Running backs13.00.875
Receivers53.00.865
Offensive line33.00.869
Defensive line63.00.856
Linebackers23.00.859
Defensive backs53.00.854
Whole class243.00.862

High-school signees by position group, with their average stars and 247Sports composite rating (out of 1), via CollegeFootballData.com. Athletes are signees with no set position.

Drafted in 2017

The 2017 draft
Rd 1Mitchell Trubisky QBChicago Bears
Rd 3Nazair Jones DTSeattle Seahawks
Rd 4Mack Hollins WRPhiladelphia Eagles
Rd 4Ryan Switzer WRDallas Cowboys
Rd 5T.J. Logan RBArizona Cardinals
Rd 7Elijah Hood RBOakland Raiders

Roster 102

The 2016 roster

102 players, with numbers, heights, hometowns and each player’s 2016 line; 54 have a stat line. See the roster

2016 Atlantic Coast Conference standings

Conference page
TeamConf.OverallAP final
Clemson7–⁠114–⁠11
Louisville7–⁠19–⁠421
Virginia Tech6–⁠210–⁠416
Florida State5–⁠310–⁠38
Miami5–⁠39–⁠420
North Carolina5–⁠38–⁠5
Pittsburgh5–⁠38–⁠5
Georgia Tech4–⁠49–⁠4
Wake Forest3–⁠57–⁠6
NC State3–⁠57–⁠6
Boston College2–⁠67–⁠6
Syracuse2–⁠64–⁠8
Duke1–⁠74–⁠8
Virginia1–⁠72–⁠10

Ordered by conference winning percentage, then conference wins. Division splits and tiebreakers aren’t applied.