2016 Arkansas State

• Biggest upsetBeat No. 25 Troy 35–⁠3Nov 17

  Troy was ranked No. 25 and favored to win.

• Most excitingLost to Central Arkansas 23–⁠28Sep 24

  The win probability swung the most, by CollegeFootballData.com’s excitement index.

Date	Opponent	Result	Elo
Sep 2	vsToledo	L 10–⁠31		48%
Sep 10	atAuburn	L 14–⁠51		35%
Sep 16	atUtah State	L 20–⁠34		40%
Sep 24	vsCentral Arkansas	L 23–⁠28		72%
Oct 5	vsGeorgia Southern	W 27–⁠26		42%
Oct 15	vsSouth Alabama	W 17–⁠7		59%
Oct 29	vsUL Monroe	W 51–⁠10		76%
Nov 3	atGeorgia State	W 31–⁠16		54%
Nov 12	vsNew Mexico State	W 41–⁠22		83%
Nov 17	at25Troy	W 35–⁠3		37%
Nov 26	atLouisiana	L 19–⁠24		65%
Dec 3	atTexas State	W 36–⁠14		82%
Dec 17Bowls & playoff	atUCFCure Bowl	W 31–⁠13		53%

Elo: a pregame chance from scores alone.

• Offense86th of 128
• Defense10th of 128
• Offense, opponent-adjusted91st of 128
• Defense, opponent-adjusted15th of 128

CORE rating -0.1, 67th of 128 (offense -9.6, defense -9.5).

A trip inside the 40 is a drive that reaches the opponent’s 40-yard line; points per trip is how many it scored on average (allowed, on defense). Average start is where drives began (the defense’s line is where its opponents started). Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up. CORE is CollegeFootballData.com’s context- and opponent-adjusted rating (points better than an average team; lower is better on defense). From CollegeFootballData.com.

117 players, with numbers, heights, hometowns and each player’s 2016 line; 65 have a stat line. See the roster

Team	Conf.	Overall	AP final
App State	7–⁠1	10–⁠3
Arkansas State	7–⁠1	8–⁠5
Troy	6–⁠2	10–⁠3
Idaho	6–⁠2	9–⁠4
Louisiana	5–⁠3	6–⁠7
Georgia Southern	4–⁠4	5–⁠7
UL Monroe	3–⁠5	4–⁠8
South Alabama	2–⁠6	6–⁠7
New Mexico State	2–⁠6	3–⁠9
Georgia State	2–⁠6	3–⁠9
Texas State	0–⁠8	2–⁠10

Ordered by conference winning percentage, then conference wins. Division splits and tiebreakers aren’t applied.