CollegeFootballDigestfrom CooperSearch

2016 Air Force

10–⁠3 (5–⁠3 Mountain West Conference), coached by Troy Calhoun.

Schedule and results

Air Force in 2016, game by game: won vs. Abilene Christian 37–21; won vs. Georgia State 48–14; won at Utah State 27–20; won vs. Navy 28–14; lost at Wyoming 26–35; lost vs. New Mexico 40–45; lost vs. Hawai’i 27–34; won at Fresno State 31–21; won at Army 31–12; won vs. Colorado State 49–46; won at San José State 41–38; won vs. No. 20 Boise State 27–20; won vs. South Alabama 45–21+34−9Won 37–21 vs. Abilene Christian+16Abilene Christi…Won 48–14 vs. Georgia State+34Georgia StateWon 27–20 at Utah State+7Utah StateWon 28–14 vs. Navy+14NavyLost 26–35 at Wyoming-9WyomingLost 40–45 vs. New Mexico-5New MexicoLost 27–34 vs. Hawai’i-7Hawai’iWon 31–21 at Fresno State+10Fresno StateWon 31–12 at Army+19ArmyWon 49–46 vs. Colorado State+3Colorado StateWon 41–38 at San José State+3San José StateWon 27–20 vs. No. 20 Boise State+7No. 20 Boise StateWon 45–21 vs. South Alabama+24South Alabama
Each game’s margin, wins above the line and losses below; orange marks an upset win.
DateOpponentResultElo
Sep 3vsAbilene ChristianW 37–⁠2185%
Sep 10vsGeorgia StateW 48–⁠1474%
Sep 24atUtah StateW 27–⁠2044%
Oct 1vsNavyW 28–⁠1446%
Oct 8atWyomingL 26–⁠3566%
Oct 15vsNew MexicoL 40–⁠4568%
Oct 22vsHawai’iL 27–⁠3476%
Oct 28atFresno StateW 31–⁠2168%
Nov 5atArmyW 31–⁠1251%
Nov 12vsColorado StateW 49–⁠4666%
Nov 19atSan José StateW 41–⁠3867%
Nov 25vs20Boise StateW 27–⁠2039%
Dec 30Bowls & playoffvsSouth AlabamaArizona BowlW 45–⁠2175%

Elo: a pregame chance from scores alone.

How it ended: Beat South Alabama 45–⁠21 in the Arizona Bowl; unranked in the final AP poll; tied for 5th in the Mountain West Conference.

In program history: The 12th-best season in program history by end-of-season Elo (of 71 on file).

Led the nationJalen Robinette: yards per catch (27.4)

Record
10–⁠3
Conference
5–⁠3 tied for 5th in Mountain West Conference
AP final
Unranked
Points
457–⁠341
Coach
Troy Calhoun
Elo
1602 +87 this season
SP+ rating
4.4 No. 58 of 128; offense No. 45, defense No. 79, special teams No. 21
SRS
0.5 No. 61 of 128 in FBS
Returning
56% of last season’s EPA, No. 87 of 128
Recruiting class
No. 114 roster talent No. 128 in FBS
Offensive coordinator
Mike Thiessen
Defensive coordinator
Steve Russ
Captains
Weston Steelhammer, Jacobi Owens, Nate Romine and Patrick Healy
Offense
Triple-option / spread hybrid
Defense
3–⁠4

How good, play by play

  • Offense38th of 128
  • Defense49th of 128
  • Offense, opponent-adjusted58th of 128
  • Defense, opponent-adjusted50th of 128
EPA per playSuccessExplosivenessFBS rank
Offense0.1548%1.0538th of 128
Defense0.0837%1.5349th of 128
Opponent-adjusted0.11 off
0.08 def		45% off
38% def		—58th off
50th def
How these are measured

Play-weighted averages over games against FBS opponents; raw numbers, not adjusted for the strength of the opponent. EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changed the expected score; success rate counts plays that kept the offense on schedule; explosiveness is the average EPA on successful plays. Lower is better on defense. Ranked by EPA per play among teams that were FBS that season. The opponent-adjusted row (offense / defense) is CollegeFootballData.com’s WEPA, which accounts for who each team played.

Drives and havoc

Points per trip inside the 40Average startHavoc
Offense3.8own 3111% allowed
Defense3.3own 3019% caused

CORE rating 6.8, 36th of 128 (offense 2.0, defense -4.8).

A trip inside the 40 is a drive that reaches the opponent’s 40-yard line; points per trip is how many it scored on average (allowed, on defense). Average start is where drives began (the defense’s line is where its opponents started). Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up. CORE is CollegeFootballData.com’s context- and opponent-adjusted rating (points better than an average team; lower is better on defense). From CollegeFootballData.com.

Leaders

Passing yardsNate Romine QB1,206 yds
Passing touchdownsNate Romine QB10 TD
Rushing yardsJacobi Owens RB859 yds
Rushing touchdownsTimothy McVey RB10 TD
Receiving yardsJalen Robinette WR959 yds
Receiving touchdownsJalen Robinette WR6 TD
TacklesWeston Steelhammer DB76 tkl
SacksRyan Watson LB9 sacks
InterceptionsWeston Steelhammer DB7 INT

Top recruits in the 2016 class

Colton Durrant DT★★★No. 1274
Stephen Omorogbe TE★★★No. 1757
Parker Workman ILB★★★No. 2136
Lakota Wills ILB★★★No. 2139
Geraud Sanders WR★★No. 2175

247Sports composite rankings via CollegeFootballData.com; national rank in the class.

The 2016 class by position

SignedStarsRating
Quarterbacks32.00.766
Running backs22.00.763
Receivers92.10.778
Offensive line52.00.770
Defensive line32.30.777
Linebackers102.20.776
Defensive backs52.00.772
Athletes and specialists32.00.779
Whole class402.10.774

High-school signees by position group, with their average stars and 247Sports composite rating (out of 1), via CollegeFootballData.com. Athletes are signees with no set position.

Roster 140

The 2016 roster

140 players, with numbers, heights, hometowns and each player’s 2016 line; 49 have a stat line. See the roster

2016 Mountain West Conference standings

Conference page
TeamConf.OverallAP final
San Diego State6–⁠211–⁠325
Boise State6–⁠210–⁠3
New Mexico6–⁠29–⁠4
Wyoming6–⁠28–⁠6
Air Force5–⁠310–⁠3
Colorado State5–⁠37–⁠6
Hawai’i4–⁠47–⁠7
Nevada3–⁠55–⁠7
UNLV3–⁠54–⁠8
San José State3–⁠54–⁠8
Utah State1–⁠73–⁠9
Fresno State0–⁠81–⁠11

Ordered by conference winning percentage, then conference wins. Division splits and tiebreakers aren’t applied.