Duke at Virginia
Friday, October 23, 2026, 7:00 PM ET Share
Duke plays at Virginia on Friday, October 23, at 7 p.m. Eastern. It will be their 75th meeting; Virginia leads the series 40–34.
Game notes: the series, streaks, the coaches and school records within reach, from the research desk.
Upcoming at Scott Stadium, CharlottesvilleForecast at kickoff: 56°F, mostly clear, NE wind 7 mphNational Weather Service forecast, Sun 10:52 PM ETTV: ESPN
Preview
| Duke | Virginia | |
|---|---|---|
| 4–2 | Record | 4–3 |
| 0.26 (23rd) | EPA per play | 0.17 (58th) |
| 0.03 (50th) | EPA per play allowed | 0.01 (40th) |
| 44% (69th) | Success rate | 44% (63rd) |
| 39% (50th) | Success rate allowed | 38% (48th) |
| 1.32 (26th) | Explosiveness | 1.15 (110th) |
| 4.3 (36th) | Points per trip inside the 40 | 4.1 (56th) |
| 16% (69th) | Havoc caused | 16% (54th) |
| 0.11 | Opponent-adjusted EPA | 0.07 |
| 0.06 | Opponent-adjusted EPA allowed | 0.11 |
Duke
| Player | Share | EPA/play | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Eget QB | 92% | 0.38 | 0.20 |
| Nate Sheppard RB | 58% | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| CJ Campbell RB | 21% | −0.11 | 0.12 |
| Jeremiah Hasley TE | 20% | 0.42 | |
| Nate Sheppard RB | 17% | 0.72 | |
| Jonah Burton WR | 13% | 0.52 |
Kicker: Cosme Salas, 0.1 points below a replacement kicker on five field-goal tries.
Virginia
| Player | Share | EPA/play | Adjusted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beau Pribula QB | 86% | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| Jekail Middlebrook RB | 31% | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| Beau Pribula QB | 19% | 0.25 | 0.19 |
| Kameron Courtney WR | 13% | 0.53 | |
| Dashawn Martin WR | 13% | 0.24 | |
| CJ Spence WR | 8% | −0.68 |
Kicker: Will Bettridge, 1.7 points below a replacement kicker on five field-goal tries.
Each side’s numbers this season, with its rank in the nation (first is best, on defense too), from CollegeFootballData.com’s game preview, as of October 18. The better side of each line is bold. Key players are each side’s leading passer, two leading runners and three leading receivers by share of plays. Adjusted: EPA per play adjusted for the defenses faced.
Players to watch
Duke
- Running backNate Sheppard820 rushing yards, 8 TDLast: vs. North Carolina, 20 carries, 77 yards; 11 catches ★, 98 yards, 1 TDNo. 6 in FBS in rushing yards
- QuarterbackWalker Eget1,229 passing yards, 8 TDLast: vs. North Carolina, 24 of 38, 249 yards, 1 TD, 1 INTTeam leader in passing yards
- SafetyAndrew Pellicciotta33 tacklesLast: vs. North Carolina, 6 tacklesTeam leader in tackles
Virginia
- QuarterbackBeau Pribula1,217 passing yards, 13 TDLast: at SMU, 13 of 22, 137 yards; 10 carries, 25 yards, 1 TDTeam leader in passing yards
- Running backJekail Middlebrook396 rushing yards, 3 TDLast: at SMU, 14 carries, 59 yards; 3 catches, 19 yardsTeam leader in rushing yards
- CornerbackJacobie Henderson38 tacklesLast: at SMU, 4 tacklesTeam leader in tackles
Each side’s two top producers this season (national leaders first) and its leading tackler.
In the news
Before kickoff
Our ratings and the line, going in
Our ratings (scores only)
Duke 51% to win.
The line
Virginia −2.5, over/under 48.5.
Updated once a night until kickoff: the consensus line when the books publish one, otherwise a single major sportsbook’s.
Win chances before kickoff: Virginia 57%, Duke 43%. CollegeFootballData.com’s estimate from the point spread.
The series
Every Duke–Virginia gameVirginia leads 40–34 in 74 meetings.
| 2025 | Duke 27, Virginia 20 | ACC Championship |
| 2025 | Virginia 34, Duke 17 | |
| 2023 | Virginia 30, Duke 27 | |
| 2022 | Duke 38, Virginia 17 | |
| 2021 | Virginia 48, Duke 0 | |
| 2020 | Virginia 38, Duke 20 |
Around this game
Duke
- Next gamevs. Boston CollegeOct. 31, 2026
- SeasonDuke in 2026
- ProgramDuke history and records
Virginia
- Next gameat Wake ForestOct. 31, 2026
- SeasonVirginia in 2026
- ProgramVirginia history and records