CollegeFootballDigestfrom CooperSearch

2019 Toledo

6–⁠6 (3–⁠5 Mid-American Conference), coached by Jason Candle.

Schedule and results

Toledo in 2019, game by game: lost at Kentucky 24–38; won vs. Murray State 45–0; won at Colorado State 41–35; won vs. BYU 28–21; won vs. Western Michigan 31–24; lost at Bowling Green 7–20; lost at Ball State 14–52; won vs. Eastern Michigan 37–34; won vs. Kent State 35–33; lost vs. Northern Illinois 28–31; lost at Buffalo 30–49; lost at Central Michigan 7–49+45−42Lost 24–38 at Kentucky-14KentuckyWon 45–0 vs. Murray State+45Murray StateWon 41–35 at Colorado State+6Colorado StateWon 28–21 vs. BYU+7BYUWon 31–24 vs. Western Michigan+7Western MichiganLost 7–20 at Bowling Green-13Bowling GreenLost 14–52 at Ball State-38Ball StateWon 37–34 vs. Eastern Michigan+3Eastern MichiganWon 35–33 vs. Kent State+2Kent StateLost 28–31 vs. Northern Illinois-3Northern Illino…Lost 30–49 at Buffalo-19BuffaloLost 7–49 at Central Michigan-42Central Michigan
Each game’s margin, wins above the line and losses below.
DateOpponentResultElo
Aug 31atKentuckyL 24–⁠3835%
Sep 14vsMurray StateW 45–⁠084%
Sep 21atColorado StateW 41–⁠3563%
Sep 28vsBYUW 28–⁠2162%
Oct 5vsWestern MichiganW 31–⁠2466%
Oct 12atBowling GreenL 7–⁠2075%
Oct 19atBall StateL 14–⁠5259%
Oct 26vsEastern MichiganW 37–⁠3459%
Nov 5vsKent StateW 35–⁠3373%
Nov 13vsNorthern IllinoisL 28–⁠3169%
Nov 20atBuffaloL 30–⁠4934%
Nov 29atCentral MichiganL 7–⁠4940%

Elo: a pregame chance from scores alone.

How it ended: Lost to Central Michigan 49–⁠7; unranked in the final AP poll; tied for 9th in the Mid-American Conference.

In program history: The 49th-best season in program history by end-of-season Elo (of 75 on file).

Record
6–⁠6
Conference
3–⁠5 tied for 9th in Mid-American Conference
AP final
Unranked
Points
327–⁠386
Coach
Jason Candle
Elo
1421 −105 this season
SP+ rating
-13.7 No. 114 of 130; offense No. 83, defense No. 121, special teams No. 90
SRS
−11.4 No. 111 of 130 in FBS
Returning
56% of last season’s EPA, No. 74 of 130
Recruiting class
No. 73 roster talent No. 91 in FBS
Offensive coordinator
Brian Wright
Defensive coordinator
Brian George
Offense
Spread
Defense
4–⁠3

How good, play by play

  • Offense68th of 130
  • Defense120th of 130
  • Offense, opponent-adjusted86th of 130
  • Defense, opponent-adjusted130th of 130
EPA per playSuccessExplosivenessFBS rank
Offense0.1043%1.2168th of 130
Defense0.2547%1.30120th of 130
Opponent-adjusted0.08 off
0.23 def		40% off
47% def		—86th off
130th def
How these are measured

Play-weighted averages over games against FBS opponents; raw numbers, not adjusted for the strength of the opponent. EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changed the expected score; success rate counts plays that kept the offense on schedule; explosiveness is the average EPA on successful plays. Lower is better on defense. Ranked by EPA per play among teams that were FBS that season. The opponent-adjusted row (offense / defense) is CollegeFootballData.com’s WEPA, which accounts for who each team played.

Drives and havoc

Points per trip inside the 40Average startHavoc
Offense3.5own 2822% allowed
Defense4.1own 2920% caused

CORE rating -14.9, 118th of 130 (offense -1.4, defense 13.5).

A trip inside the 40 is a drive that reaches the opponent’s 40-yard line; points per trip is how many it scored on average (allowed, on defense). Average start is where drives began (the defense’s line is where its opponents started). Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up. CORE is CollegeFootballData.com’s context- and opponent-adjusted rating (points better than an average team; lower is better on defense). From CollegeFootballData.com.

Leaders

Passing yardsMitchell Guadagni QB1,099 yds
Passing touchdownsMitchell Guadagni QB8 TD
Rushing yardsBryant Koback RB1,187 yds
Rushing touchdownsBryant Koback RB12 TD
Receiving yardsBryce Mitchell WR679 yds
Receiving touchdownsBryce Mitchell WR4 TD
TacklesJordan Fisher LB89 tkl
SacksSaeed Holt S3.5 sacks
InterceptionsKahlil Robinson DB3 INT

Top recruits in the 2019 class

Justin Stephens TE★★★No. 730
Jerjuan Newton ATH★★★No. 837
Micah Kelly RB★★★No. 902
Chris’Seon Stringer WR★★★No. 1077
Dequan Finn DUAL★★★No. 1137

247Sports composite rankings via CollegeFootballData.com; national rank in the class.

The 2019 class by position

SignedStarsRating
Quarterbacks22.50.811
Running backs23.00.850
Receivers53.00.838
Offensive line13.00.844
Defensive line52.80.810
Linebackers13.00.844
Defensive backs33.00.821
Athletes and specialists32.70.830
Whole class222.90.828

High-school signees by position group, with their average stars and 247Sports composite rating (out of 1), via CollegeFootballData.com. Athletes are signees with no set position.

Roster 115

The 2019 roster

115 players, with numbers, heights, hometowns and each player’s 2019 line; 64 have a stat line. See the roster

2019 Mid-American Conference standings

Conference page
TeamConf.OverallAP final
Central Michigan6–⁠28–⁠6
Miami (OH)6–⁠28–⁠6
Buffalo5–⁠38–⁠5
Western Michigan5–⁠37–⁠6
Kent State5–⁠37–⁠6
Ohio5–⁠37–⁠6
Ball State4–⁠45–⁠7
Northern Illinois4–⁠45–⁠7
Toledo3–⁠56–⁠6
Eastern Michigan3–⁠56–⁠7
Bowling Green2–⁠63–⁠9
Akron0–⁠80–⁠12

Ordered by conference winning percentage, then conference wins. Division splits and tiebreakers aren’t applied.