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2015 Toledo

10–⁠2 (6–⁠2 Mid-American Conference), coached by Matt Campbell, then Jason Candle (interim, bowl game).

Schedule and results

Toledo in 2015, game by game: won at No. 18 Arkansas 16–12; won vs. Iowa State 30–23; won vs. Arkansas State 37–7; won at Ball State 24–10; won vs. Kent State 38–7; won vs. Eastern Michigan 63–20; won at Massachusetts 51–35; lost vs. Northern Illinois 27–32; won at Central Michigan 28–23; won at Bowling Green 44–28; lost vs. Western Michigan 30–35; won vs. No. 24 Temple 32–17+43−5Won 16–12 at No. 18 Arkansas+4No. 18 ArkansasWon 30–23 vs. Iowa State+7Iowa StateWon 37–7 vs. Arkansas State+30Arkansas StateWon 24–10 at Ball State+14Ball StateWon 38–7 vs. Kent State+31Kent StateWon 63–20 vs. Eastern Michigan+43Eastern MichiganWon 51–35 at Massachusetts+16MassachusettsLost 27–32 vs. Northern Illinois-5Northern Illino…Won 28–23 at Central Michigan+5Central MichiganWon 44–28 at Bowling Green+16Bowling GreenLost 30–35 vs. Western Michigan-5Western MichiganWon 32–17 vs. No. 24 Temple+15No. 24 Temple
Each game’s margin, wins above the line and losses below; orange marks an upset win.
DateOpponentResultElo
Sep 12at18ArkansasW 16–⁠1236%
Sep 19vsIowa StateW 30–⁠2378%
Sep 26vsArkansas StateW 37–⁠773%
Oct 3atBall StateW 24–⁠1060%
Oct 10vsKent StateW 38–⁠786%
Oct 17vsEastern MichiganW 63–⁠2092%
Oct 24atMassachusettsW 51–⁠3582%
Nov 3vsNorthern IllinoisL 27–⁠3266%
Nov 10atCentral MichiganW 28–⁠2355%
Nov 17atBowling GreenW 44–⁠2843%
Nov 27vsWestern MichiganL 30–⁠3577%
Dec 22Bowls & playoffvs24TempleBoca Raton BowlW 32–⁠1756%

Elo: a pregame chance from scores alone.

How it ended: Beat Temple 32–⁠17 in the Boca Raton Bowl; unranked in the final AP poll; tied for 2nd in the Mid-American Conference.

In program history: The 4th-best season in program history by end-of-season Elo (of 75 on file).

AP poll, week by week

  1. Wk 6: 24
  2. Wk 7: 22
  3. Wk 8: 19
  4. Wk 9: 20
  5. Wk 10: 20
  6. Wk 13: 24

MAC West champions6–⁠2 in the conference, shared with Northern Illinois and Western Michigan

Record
10–⁠2
Conference
6–⁠2 tied for 2nd in Mid-American Conference
AP final
Unranked peak No. 19
Points
420–⁠249
Coach
Matt Campbell, then Jason Candle (interim, bowl game)
Elo
1665 +108 this season
SP+ rating
7.7 No. 50 of 128; offense No. 60, defense No. 33, special teams No. 93
SRS
9.7 No. 27 of 128 in FBS
Returning
87% of last season’s EPA, No. 18 of 128
Recruiting class
No. 84 roster talent No. 80 in FBS
Offensive coordinator
Jason Candle
Defensive coordinator
Jon Heacock
Offense
Spread
Defense
4–⁠3 or 4–⁠2–⁠5

How good, play by play

  • Offense24th of 128
  • Defense20th of 128
  • Offense, opponent-adjusted35th of 128
  • Defense, opponent-adjusted22nd of 128
EPA per playSuccessExplosivenessFBS rank
Offense0.1845%1.2624th of 128
Defense-0.0240%1.1520th of 128
Opponent-adjusted0.15 off
0.01 def		43% off
41% def		—35th off
22nd def
How these are measured

Play-weighted averages over games against FBS opponents; raw numbers, not adjusted for the strength of the opponent. EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changed the expected score; success rate counts plays that kept the offense on schedule; explosiveness is the average EPA on successful plays. Lower is better on defense. Ranked by EPA per play among teams that were FBS that season. The opponent-adjusted row (offense / defense) is CollegeFootballData.com’s WEPA, which accounts for who each team played.

Drives and havoc

Points per trip inside the 40Average startHavoc
Offense3.5own 322% allowed
Defense2.3own 312% caused

A trip inside the 40 is a drive that reaches the opponent’s 40-yard line; points per trip is how many it scored on average (allowed, on defense). Average start is where drives began (the defense’s line is where its opponents started). Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up. From CollegeFootballData.com.

Leaders

Passing yardsPhillip Ely QB2,965 yds
Passing touchdownsPhillip Ely QB23 TD
Rushing yardsKareem Hunt RB973 yds
Rushing touchdownsKareem Hunt RB12 TD
Receiving yardsCody Thompson WR825 yds
Receiving touchdownsAlonzo Russell WR5 TD
InterceptionsCheatham Norrils CB3 INT

Top recruits in the 2015 class

Chris Green ILB★★★No. 764
Mitchell Guadagni PRO★★★No. 1420
Nevone McCrimmon RB★★★No. 1592
Chandler Cotterman OT★★★No. 1637
Arthur Thompkins RB★★★No. 1694

247Sports composite rankings via CollegeFootballData.com; national rank in the class.

The 2015 class by position

SignedStarsRating
Quarterbacks13.00.832
Running backs32.70.808
Receivers22.00.781
Offensive line53.00.809
Defensive line42.50.794
Linebackers23.00.830
Athletes and specialists32.00.782
Whole class202.60.802

High-school signees by position group, with their average stars and 247Sports composite rating (out of 1), via CollegeFootballData.com. Athletes are signees with no set position.

Roster 106

The 2015 roster

106 players, with numbers, heights, hometowns and each player’s 2015 line; 31 have a stat line. See the roster

2015 Mid-American Conference standings

Conference page
TeamConf.OverallAP final
Bowling Green7–⁠110–⁠4
Toledo6–⁠210–⁠2
Western Michigan6–⁠28–⁠5
Northern Illinois6–⁠28–⁠6
Central Michigan6–⁠27–⁠6
Akron5–⁠38–⁠5
Ohio5–⁠38–⁠5
Buffalo3–⁠55–⁠7
Ball State2–⁠63–⁠9
Miami (OH)2–⁠63–⁠9
Kent State2–⁠63–⁠9
Massachusetts2–⁠63–⁠9
Eastern Michigan0–⁠81–⁠11

Ordered by conference winning percentage, then conference wins. Division splits and tiebreakers aren’t applied.