Fresno State at Air Force

Saturday, November 9, 2024

Air Force beat Fresno State 36–⁠28. It was their 11th meeting; Air Force leads the series 8–⁠3.

AwayFresno State6–⁠7 in 2024
28
HomeAir Force5–⁠7 in 2024
36

Final at Falcon Stadium, Colorado SpringsTV: FOXAttendance 14,794

At kickoff
29°F, clear, wind 9 mph from the northWeather: NOAA NCEI Integrated Surface Database; Usaf Academy Airstrip Airport (KAFF), 4 km from the stadium, 10 minutes after kickoff
Official
Patrick FoyGame officials: stats.ncaa.org box scores, via SportsDataverse

Scoring by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Fresno State7140728
Air Force71091036

How the win probability moved

Air Force favored

Win probability by play: Air Force 55% at kickoff, 100% at the end. Biggest swing: 36 points.

Fresno State favored

Win probability after every play, from CollegeFootballData.com’s model. The dot marks the biggest swing (36 points).

Standouts

  • PassingMikey Keene23 of 26, 289 yards, 3 TD, 1 INTFresno State
  • RushingDylan Carson33 carries, 120 yards, 1 TDAir Force
  • ReceivingMac Dalena4 catches, 89 yards, 2 TDFresno State
  • DefenseTuasivi Nomura18 tacklesFresno State

Player stats

Fresno State

PassingC/AttYdsTDInt
Mikey Keene23/2628931
RushingCarYdsTDLong
Elijah Gilliam415112
Johnathan Arceneaux2604
Bryson Donelson1202
ReceivingRecYdsTDLong
Mac Dalena489273
Jalen Moss675132
Richie Anderson560018
Tim Grear Jr.226018
DefenseTklTFLSacksInt
Tuasivi Nomura18000
Malachi Langley13000
Jayden Davis11000
Devo Bridges10100

Air Force

PassingC/AttYdsTDInt
Quentin Hayes2/61410
RushingCarYdsTDLong
Dylan Carson33120112
Quentin Hayes2591214
Cade Harris447030
Owen Allen1045014
ReceivingRecYdsTDLong
Brandon Engel111011
Cade Harris1313
DefenseTklTFLSacksInt
Osaro Aihie5000
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner5000
Blake Fletcher5001
Camby Goff4000
James Tomasi2110
David Santiago2110

From CollegeFootballData’s box score. Names lead to each player’s page. ★ a career high on file.

Team stats

Fresno StateAir Force
284Total yards358
289Passing yards14
-5Rushing yards344
11.1Yards per pass2.3
-0.4Yards per rush4.3
15First downs24
1–⁠4Third downs10–⁠19
0–⁠2Fourth downs5–⁠6
1Turnovers0
5–⁠42Penalties4–⁠26
14:52Possession45:08
0Sacks (by defense)2

Efficiency

Fresno StateAir Force
49%Success rate50%
0.12EPA per play0.17
1.37Explosiveness0.86
−0.28Rushing EPA0.18
0.27Passing EPA0.08
23%Passing-down success31%
0.38First-down EPA−0.12
−0.06Second-down EPA0.02
1.42Third-down EPA0.85
2%Havoc by its defense19%

From CollegeFootballData.com: each offense’s efficiency, and the havoc each defense caused. The better side of each line is bold.

Before kickoff

Our ratings and the line, going in

Our ratings (scores only)

Fresno State 67% to win. Air Force won as Elo’s underdog.

The line

Fresno State −10, over/under 40.5.

The last line on file before kickoff: the consensus line when the books publish one, otherwise a single major sportsbook’s.

Before kickoff, the win chances were Fresno State 74%, Air Force 26%. CollegeFootballData.com’s estimate from the point spread.

Every drive

Air Force end zoneFresno State end zoneQ1 Fresno StateTouchdown, 7 playsQ1 Air ForceTouchdown, 19 playsQ1 Fresno StatePunt, 3 playsQ2 Air ForceTouchdown, 14 playsQ2 Fresno StateTouchdown, 3 playsQ2 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 4 playsQ2 Fresno StateTouchdown, 3 playsQ2 Air ForceField goal, 11 playsQ3 Air ForceField goal, 9 playsQ3 Fresno StateInterception, 2 playsQ3 Air ForceTouchdown, 11 playsQ3 Fresno StateTurnover on downs, 5 playsQ3 Air ForceTouchdown, 12 playsQ4 Fresno StateTurnover on downs, 6 playsQ4 Air ForceField goal, 8 playsQ4 Fresno StateTouchdown, 9 playsQ4 Air ForceEnd of game, 1 play
Solid bars scored; an outline in the other team’s color marks points the defense scored. Air Force drives left to right, Fresno State right to left.
  1. Q1 Fresno StateTouchdown, 7 plays, 59 yards
  2. Q1 Air ForceTouchdown, 19 plays, 75 yards
  3. Q1 Fresno StatePunt, 3 plays, −1 yard
  4. Q2 Air ForceTouchdown, 14 plays, 59 yards
  5. Q2 Fresno StateTouchdown, 3 plays, 75 yards
  6. Q2 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 4 plays, 9 yards
  7. Q2 Fresno StateTouchdown, 3 plays, 34 yards
  8. Q2 Air ForceField goal, 11 plays, 53 yards
  9. Q3 Air ForceField goal, 9 plays, 56 yards
  10. Q3 Fresno StateInterception, 2 plays, 2 yards
  11. Q3 Air ForceTouchdown, 11 plays, 42 yards
  12. Q3 Fresno StateTurnover on downs, 5 plays, 39 yards
  13. Q3 Air ForceTouchdown, 12 plays, 64 yards
  14. Q4 Fresno StateTurnover on downs, 6 plays, 0 yards
  15. Q4 Air ForceField goal, 8 plays, 6 yards
  16. Q4 Fresno StateTouchdown, 9 plays, 75 yards
  17. Q4 Air ForceEnd of game, 1 play, −1 yard

Play by play

1st quarter3 drives, then Tied at 7
Fresno State Touchdown, 7 plays
14:59Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Moss return for 41 yds to the FRES 41
14:511st & 10 at own 41Air Force Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle on AIHIE, Osaro enforced (Osaro Aihie) to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down
13:271st & 10 at opp 28Elijah Gilliam run for 12 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down
13:031st & 10 at opp 16Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 8 yds to the AFA 8
12:272nd & 2 at opp 8Johnathan Arceneaux run for 4 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST down
12:161st & goal at opp 4Elijah Gilliam run for no gain to the AFA 4
12:042nd & goal at opp 4Johnathan Arceneaux run for 2 yds to the AFA 2
11:303rd & goal at opp 2(11:30) KEENE, Mikey sacked for a loss of 0 yards at the AF2 (TUIOTI-MARINER, Lincoln), clock 11:24. PENALTY AF Holding on BELLAMY, Jamari enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the AF2 to the AF1 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
11:011st & goal at opp 1Elijah Gilliam run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Fresno State 7, Air Force 0
Air Force Touchdown, 19 plays
11:01Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
10:591st & 10 at own 25Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30
10:272nd & 5 at own 30Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34
10:013rd & 1 at own 34Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down
9:191st & 10 at own 37Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the AFA 40
8:492nd & 7 at own 40Kade Frew run for 7 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down
8:161st & 10 at own 47Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 48
7:362nd & 5 at opp 48Dylan Carson run for no gain to the FRES 48
6:563rd & 5 at opp 48Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down
6:181st & 10 at opp 43Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 38
5:432nd & 5 at opp 38Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 35
5:063rd & 2 at opp 35Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the FRES 29 for a 1ST down
4:351st & 10 at opp 29Air Force Penalty, Illegal Substitution (-5 Yards) to the FRES 34
4:221st & 15 at opp 34Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the FRES 29
3:512nd & 10 at opp 29Tylor Latham run for 5 yds to the FRES 24
3:123rd & 5 at opp 24Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the FRES 20
2:404th & 1 at opp 20Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST down
2:041st & 10 at opp 17Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 14
1:212nd & 7 at opp 14Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 9
0:483rd & 2 at opp 9Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the FRES 1 for a 1ST down
0:111st & goal at opp 1Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Tied at 7
0:11Timeout Air Force, clock 00:11
Fresno State Punt, 3 plays
0:11Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Moss return for 21 yds to the FRES 21
0:061st & 10 at own 21Timeout Air Force, clock 00:06
0:051st & 10 at own 21Bryson Donelson run for 2 yds to the FRES 23
Q2 14:572nd & 8 at own 23Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 1 yd to the FRES 24
Q2 14:133rd & 7 at own 24Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 1 yd to the FRES 25
Q2 13:184th & 6 at own 25Fresno State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FRES 20
Q2 13:104th & 11 at own 20Clay Lawrence punt for 42 yds , Brandon Engel returns for 3 yds to the AFA 41
Q2 13:051st & 10 at own 41Timeout Air Force, clock 13:05
2nd quarter6 drives, then Fresno State 21, Air Force 17
Air Force Touchdown, 14 plays
13:041st & 10 at own 41Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 42
12:292nd & 9 at own 42Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the FRES 49 for a 1ST down
11:441st & 10 at opp 49Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 47
11:092nd & 8 at opp 47Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the FRES 45
10:263rd & 6 at opp 45Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 43
9:454th & 4 at opp 43HAYES, Quentin pass short to the right incomplete intended for FREW, Kade thrown to the FS38, clock 09:45. PENALTY FS Personal Foul on NEAL, Julian enforced 15 yards from the FS43 to the FS28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).
9:451st & 10 at opp 28Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 25
9:062nd & 7 at opp 25Quentin Hayes run for 7 yds to the FRES 18 for a 1ST down
8:291st & 10 at opp 18Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the FRES 15
7:542nd & 7 at opp 15Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the FRES 10
7:183rd & 2 at opp 10Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the FRES 9
6:494th & 1 at opp 9Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST down
6:081st & goal at opp 7Cade Harris run for 3 yds to the FRES 4
5:312nd & goal at opp 4Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the FRES 3
4:453rd & goal at opp 3Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Air Force 14, Fresno State 7
Fresno State Touchdown, 3 plays
4:45Timeout Air Force, clock 04:45
4:45Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
4:441st & 10 at own 25Mikey Keene run for a loss of 8 yards to the FRES 17
4:402nd & 18 at own 17Timeout Air Force, clock 04:40
4:292nd & 18 at own 17Mikey Keene pass complete to Jordan Brown for 10 yds to the FRES 27
3:473rd & 8 at own 27Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 73 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Tied at 14
3:47Fresno State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Devo Bridges) to the AFA 8
Air Force Turnover on downs, 4 plays
3:47Timeout Air Force, clock 03:47
3:47Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
3:461st & 10 at own 25Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AFA 30
3:172nd & 5 at own 30Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 33
2:383rd & 2 at own 33Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 34
2:274th & 1 at own 34Timeout Air Force, clock 02:27
2:264th & 1 at own 34Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the AFA 34
Fresno State Touchdown, 3 plays
2:211st & 10 at opp 34Joshua Wood run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 37
2:002nd & 13 at opp 37Timeout Air Force, clock 02:00
1:572nd & 13 at opp 37Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 18 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down
1:42Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback Fresno State Penalty, Offsides (Devo Bridges)
Fresno State Touchdown, 3 plays
1:371st & 10 at opp 19Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 19 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Fresno State 21, Air Force 14
Air Force Field goal, 11 plays
1:231st & 10 at own 30Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 34
1:012nd & 6 at own 34Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down
0:401st & 10 at own 43Quentin Hayes pass incomplete
0:392nd & 10 at own 43Quentin Hayes pass incomplete
0:333rd & 10 at own 43Quentin Hayes run for 14 yds to the FRES 43 for a 1ST down
0:231st & 10 at opp 43Quentin Hayes pass incomplete
0:182nd & 10 at opp 43Quentin Hayes pass complete to Brandon Engel for 11 yds to the FRES 32 for a 1ST down
0:121st & 10 at opp 32Quentin Hayes pass incomplete
0:112nd & 10 at opp 32Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the FRES 31
0:083rd & 9 at opp 31Timeout Air Force, clock 00:08
0:053rd & 9 at opp 31Owen Allen run for 14 yds to the FRES 17 for a 1ST down
0:001st & 10 at opp 17Matthew Dapore 35 yd FG GOODFresno State 21, Air Force 17
3rd quarter5 drives, then Air Force 26, Fresno State 21
Air Force Field goal, 9 plays
15:00Dylan Lynch kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
14:591st & 10 at own 25Kade Frew run for 9 yds to the AFA 34
14:242nd & 1 at own 34Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down
13:411st & 10 at own 39Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 42
13:062nd & 7 at own 42Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 45
12:263rd & 4 at own 45Cade Harris run for 30 yds to the FRES 25 for a 1ST down
11:431st & 10 at opp 25Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 20
11:082nd & 5 at opp 20Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the FRES 19
10:303rd & 4 at opp 19Owen Allen run for no gain to the FRES 19
9:464th & 4 at opp 19Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG GOODFresno State 21, Air Force 20
9:46Timeout Air Force, clock 09:46
Fresno State Interception, 2 plays
9:46Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds , Jalen Moss return for 17 yds to the FRES 17
9:371st & 10 at own 17Elijah Gilliam run for 2 yds to the FRES 19
9:032nd & 8 at own 19Mikey Keene pass intercepted Blake Fletcher return for no gain to the FRES 42
Air Force Touchdown, 11 plays
8:521st & 10 at opp 42Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 39
8:182nd & 7 at opp 39Quentin Hayes run for 9 yds to the FRES 30 for a 1ST down
7:321st & 10 at opp 30Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the FRES 24
6:532nd & 4 at opp 24Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 21
6:253rd & 1 at opp 21Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the FRES 21
5:574th & 1 at opp 21Timeout Air Force, clock 05:57
5:394th & 1 at opp 21Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the FRES 19 for a 1ST down
5:161st & 10 at opp 19Dylan Carson run for 12 yds to the FRES 7 for a 1ST down
4:391st & goal at opp 7Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the FRES 6
3:552nd & goal at opp 6Dylan Carson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 7
3:143rd & goal at opp 7Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the FRES 2
2:304th & goal at opp 2Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Air Force 26, Fresno State 21
Fresno State Turnover on downs, 5 plays
2:30Timeout Air Force, clock 02:30
2:30Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
2:291st & 10 at own 25Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 32 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down
1:561st & 10 at opp 43Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for no gain to the AFA 43
1:182nd & 10 at opp 43Mikey Keene pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 5 yds to the AFA 38
0:423rd & 5 at opp 38Mikey Keene pass incomplete
0:374th & 5 at opp 38Timeout Air Force, clock 00:37
0:364th & 5 at opp 38Mikey Keene pass complete to Elijah Gilliam for 2 yds to the AFA 36
Air Force Touchdown, 12 plays
0:291st & 10 at own 36Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 40
Q4 15:002nd & 6 at own 40Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 45
Q4 15:003rd & 1 at own 45Dylan Carson run for 11 yds to the FRES 44 for a 1ST down
Q4 15:001st & 10 at opp 44Owen Allen run for 6 yds to the FRES 38
Q4 15:002nd & 4 at opp 38Cameron Breier run for 7 yds to the FRES 31 for a 1ST down
Q4 15:001st & 10 at opp 31Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the FRES 22
Q4 15:002nd & 1 at opp 22Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 20 for a 1ST down
Q4 15:001st & 10 at opp 20Kade Frew run for 8 yds to the FRES 12
Q4 15:002nd & 2 at opp 12Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 9 for a 1ST down
Q4 15:001st & goal at opp 9Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 6
Q4 15:002nd & goal at opp 6Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the FRES 1
Q4 8:513rd & goal at opp 1Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)Air Force 33, Fresno State 21
4th quarter4 drives, then Air Force 36, Fresno State 28
Fresno State Turnover on downs, 6 plays
8:51Timeout Air Force, clock 08:51
8:511st & 10 at opp 25Timeout Air Force, clock 08:51
8:51Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
8:501st & 10 at own 25(08:50) KEENE, Mikey pass deep to the left complete for 21 yards to MOSS, Jalen caught at the FS43 and advanced to the FS46 (GOFF, Camby), out of bounds, clock 08:45. PENALTY FS Personal Foul on NELSON, Braylen enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the FS25 to the FS13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
8:371st & 22 at own 13Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 18 yds to the FRES 31
8:132nd & 4 at own 31Mikey Keene pass complete to Tim Grear Jr. for 8 yds to the FRES 39 for a 1ST down
7:541st & 10 at own 39Mikey Keene sacked by James Tomasi for a loss of 4 yards to the FRES 35
7:202nd & 14 at own 35Mikey Keene run for no gain to the FRES 35
6:393rd & 14 at own 35Mikey Keene pass complete to Jake Tarwater for 3 yds to the FRES 38
5:584th & 11 at own 38Mikey Keene sacked by David Santiago for a loss of 13 yards to the FRES 25
Air Force Field goal, 8 plays
5:531st & 10 at opp 14Timeout Air Force, clock 05:53
5:501st & 10 at opp 25Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 23
5:092nd & 8 at opp 23Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the FRES 20
4:263rd & 5 at opp 20Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the FRES 16
3:444th & 1 at opp 16Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the FRES 14 for a 1ST down
2:591st & 10 at opp 14Air Force Penalty, False Start (Tylor Latham) to the FRES 19
2:361st & 15 at opp 19Kade Frew run for 1 yd to the FRES 18
2:322nd & 14 at opp 18Timeout Air Force, clock 02:32
2:292nd & 14 at opp 18Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the FRES 18
2:283rd & 14 at opp 18Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the FRES 19
2:28Timeout Air Force, clock 02:28
2:004th & 15 at opp 19Timeout Air Force, clock 02:00
1:564th & 15 at opp 19Matthew Dapore 36 yd FG GOODAir Force 36, Fresno State 21
Fresno State Touchdown, 9 plays
1:56Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
1:541st & 10 at own 25Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 7 yds to the FRES 32
1:372nd & 3 at own 32Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 6 yds to the FRES 38 for a 1ST down
1:281st & 10 at own 38Mikey Keene pass complete to Jalen Moss for 16 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down
1:211st & 10 at opp 46Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 16 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down
1:121st & 10 at opp 30Timeout Air Force, clock 01:12
1:081st & 10 at opp 30Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 9 yds to the AFA 21
1:052nd & 1 at opp 21Timeout Air Force, clock 01:05
0:592nd & 1 at opp 21Mikey Keene pass complete to Johnathan Arceneaux for 3 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down
0:561st & 10 at opp 18Mikey Keene pass incomplete
0:522nd & 10 at opp 18Mikey Keene pass complete to Richie Anderson for 12 yds to the AFA 6 for a 1ST down
0:381st & goal at opp 6Mikey Keene pass complete to Mac Dalena for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)Air Force 36, Fresno State 28
Air Force End of game, 1 play
0:38Dylan Lynch kickoff for 14 yds , Tuasivi Nomura return for no gain to the FRES 49
0:361st & 10 at opp 49(00:36) Kneel down by TEAM at FS50 (team loss of 1), clock 00:28.

Play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com, as its scorers wrote it. The clock is the time left in the quarter; the spot is from the side of the team with the ball.

Air Force leads 8–⁠3 in 11 meetings.

Recent meetings
2024Air Force 36, Fresno State 28
2019Air Force 43, Fresno State 24
2016Air Force 31, Fresno State 21
2015Air Force 42, Fresno State 14
2012Fresno State 48, Air Force 15
2000Air Force 37, Fresno State 34Silicon Valley Football Classic

Around this game