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Baylor vs. Air Force

Thursday, December 22, 2022, Armed Forces Bowl

Air Force beat Baylor 30–⁠15. It was their fourth meeting; after it, Baylor led the series 3–⁠1.

Neutral siteBaylor6–⁠7 in 2022
15
Neutral siteAir Force10–⁠3 in 2022
30

Final at Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort WorthTV: ESPNAttendance 43,875Payout $1,350,000 (Wikipedia)

MVPs Haaziq Daniels (QB, Air Force); Dillon Doyle (LB, Baylor)Wikipedia

At kickoff
14°F, a few clouds, wind 23 mph from the north, gusts to 36 mphWeather: NOAA NCEI Integrated Surface Database; Fort Worth Naval Air Station Jrb/Carswell Field (KNFW), 10 km from the stadium, 22 minutes after kickoff
Official
Jeremy ValentineGame officials: stats.ncaa.org box scores, via SportsDataverse

Scoring by quarter

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Baylor070815
Air Force9014730

Standouts

Photos: Wikimedia Commons, free licenses; credits on each player’s page.

Player stats

Baylor

PassingC/AttYdsTDInt
Blake Shapen11/2318820
RushingCarYdsTDLong
Craig Williams725010
Qualan Jones51405
Richard Reese81004
Josh Cameron1101
ReceivingRecYdsTDLong
Jaylen Ellis157057
Josh Cameron356031
Gavin Holmes447120
Kelsey Johnson220014

Air Force

PassingC/AttYdsTDInt
Haaziq Daniels4/710310
RushingCarYdsTDLong
Brad Roberts37116211
Haaziq Daniels1581115
John Lee Eldridge III1065034
DeAndre Hughes41507
ReceivingRecYdsTDLong
Amari Terry168068
David Cormier220012
Caleb Rillos115115
DefenseTklTFLSacksInt
Vince Sanford1110
Peyton Zdroik1110

From CollegeFootballData’s box score. Names lead to each player’s page. ★ a career high on file.

Team stats

BaylorAir Force
230Total yards379
188Passing yards103
42Rushing yards276
8.2Yards per pass14.7
1.6Yards per rush4.1
11First downs20
0–⁠11Third downs8–⁠16
3–⁠6Fourth downs2–⁠5
0Turnovers0
5–⁠26Penalties2–⁠20
19:56Possession40:04
Sacks (by defense)2

Efficiency

BaylorAir Force
27%Success rate41%
−0.17EPA per play0.07
1.73Explosiveness1.21
−0.28Rushing EPA−0.07
−0.06Passing EPA1.50
11%Passing-down success35%
0.15First-down EPA0.16
−0.11Second-down EPA0.05
−0.38Third-down EPA0.52

From CollegeFootballData.com: each offense’s efficiency, and the havoc each defense caused. The better side of each line is bold.

Before kickoff

Our ratings and the line, going in

Our ratings (scores only)

Air Force 57% to win. Elo’s favorite won.

The line

Baylor −3.5, over/under 42.5.

The last line on file before kickoff: the consensus line when the books publish one, otherwise a single major sportsbook’s.

Before kickoff, the win chances were Baylor 59%, Air Force 41%. CollegeFootballData.com’s estimate from the point spread.

Every drive

Air Force end zoneBaylor end zoneQ1 BaylorPunt, 3 playsQ1 Air ForceTouchdown, 15 playsQ1 BaylorPunt, 3 playsQ1 Air ForceField goal, 5 playsQ1 BaylorPunt, 8 playsQ2 Air ForcePunt, 4 playsQ2 BaylorMissed FG, 5 playsQ2 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 10 playsQ2 BaylorTouchdown, 6 playsQ2 Air ForceEnd of half, 1 playQ3 Air ForceTouchdown, 5 playsQ3 BaylorPunt, 7 playsQ3 Air ForcePunt, 3 playsQ3 BaylorTurnover on downs, 4 playsQ3 Air ForceTouchdown, 7 playsQ3 BaylorTurnover on downs, 4 playsQ3 Air ForceTouchdown, 7 playsQ4 BaylorTurnover on downs, 5 playsQ4 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 10 playsQ4 BaylorTouchdown, 4 playsQ4 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 8 playsQ4 BaylorEnd of game, 1 play
Solid bars scored; an outline in the other team’s color marks points the defense scored. Air Force drives left to right, Baylor right to left.
  1. Q1 BaylorPunt, 3 plays, 1 yard
  2. Q1 Air ForceTouchdown, 15 plays, 55 yards
  3. Q1 BaylorPunt, 3 plays, 8 yards
  4. Q1 Air ForceField goal, 5 plays, 38 yards
  5. Q1 BaylorPunt, 8 plays, 21 yards
  6. Q2 Air ForcePunt, 4 plays, 13 yards
  7. Q2 BaylorMissed FG, 5 plays, 30 yards
  8. Q2 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 10 plays, 32 yards
  9. Q2 BaylorTouchdown, 6 plays, 47 yards
  10. Q2 Air ForceEnd of half, 1 play, −1 yard
  11. Q3 Air ForceTouchdown, 5 plays, 83 yards
  12. Q3 BaylorPunt, 7 plays, 9 yards
  13. Q3 Air ForcePunt, 3 plays, 6 yards
  14. Q3 BaylorTurnover on downs, 4 plays, 6 yards
  15. Q3 Air ForceTouchdown, 7 plays, 64 yards
  16. Q3 BaylorTurnover on downs, 4 plays, 3 yards
  17. Q3 Air ForceTouchdown, 7 plays, 42 yards
  18. Q4 BaylorTurnover on downs, 5 plays, 26 yards
  19. Q4 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 10 plays, 32 yards
  20. Q4 BaylorTouchdown, 4 plays, 85 yards
  21. Q4 Air ForceTurnover on downs, 8 plays, 19 yards
  22. Q4 BaylorEnd of game, 1 play, −6 yards

Play by play

1st quarter5 drives, then Air Force 9, Baylor 0
Baylor Punt, 3 plays
15:001st & 10 at own 35Matthew Dapore kickoff for 58 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 14 yds to the Bayl 21
14:501st & 10 at own 21Blake Shapen pass incomplete
14:252nd & 10 at own 21Richard Reese run for 1 yd to the Bayl 22
14:123rd & 9 at own 22Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Gavin Holmes
14:044th & 9 at own 22Issac Power punt for 33 yds, downed at the AFA 45
Air Force Touchdown, 15 plays
13:461st & 10 at own 45Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 46
13:212nd & 9 at own 46John Lee Eldridge III run for no gain to the AFA 46
12:313rd & 9 at own 46Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 12 yds to the Bayl 42 for a 1ST down
12:061st & 10 at opp 42Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the Bayl 42
11:372nd & 10 at opp 42John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 46
10:593rd & 14 at opp 46Haaziq Daniels run for 9 yds to the Bayl 37
10:184th & 5 at opp 37Haaziq Daniels pass complete to David Cormier for 8 yds to the Bayl 29 for a 1ST down
9:571st & 10 at opp 29AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 34
9:251st & 15 at opp 34Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the Bayl 25
8:542nd & 6 at opp 25Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 22
8:273rd & 3 at opp 22Haaziq Daniels run for 10 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST down
7:511st & 10 at opp 12Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9
7:222nd & 7 at opp 9DeAndre Hughes run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8
6:423rd & 6 at opp 8Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST down
5:591st & goal at opp 1Brad Roberts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 2
5:202nd & goal at opp 2Brad Roberts run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore PAT BLOCKED)Air Force 6, Baylor 0
Baylor Punt, 3 plays
5:202nd & 11 at own 35Matthew Dapore kickoff for 55 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 17 yds to the Bayl 27
5:201st & 10 at own 27BAYLOR Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 22
5:081st & 15 at own 22Craig Williams run for 10 yds to the Bayl 32
4:322nd & 5 at own 32Josh Cameron run for 1 yd to the Bayl 33
3:593rd & 4 at own 33Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35
3:184th & 2 at own 35Issac Power punt for 23 yds, downed at the AFA 42
Air Force Field goal, 5 plays
3:091st & 10 at own 42John Lee Eldridge III run for 34 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down
2:281st & 10 at opp 24Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 22
1:522nd & 8 at opp 22Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 20
1:183rd & 6 at opp 20Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier
1:134th & 6 at opp 20Matthew Dapore 37 yd FG GOODAir Force 9, Baylor 0
Baylor Punt, 8 plays
1:134th & 6 at own 35Matthew Dapore kickoff for 56 yds , Monaray Baldwin return for 13 yds to the Bayl 22
1:011st & 10 at own 22Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 13 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down
0:181st & 10 at own 35Qualan Jones run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37
Q2 14:552nd & 8 at own 37Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron
Q2 14:423rd & 9 at own 37Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 6 yds to the Bayl 43
Q2 14:084th & 2 at own 43Craig Williams run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47 for a 1ST down
Q2 13:221st & 10 at own 47Blake Shapen run for no gain to the Bayl 47
Q2 13:052nd & 10 at own 47Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the Bayl 48
Q2 12:333rd & 9 at own 48Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley
Q2 12:334th & 9 at own 48BAYLOR Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 43
Q2 12:204th & 14 at own 43Issac Power punt for 50 yds, downed at the AFA 7
2nd quarter6 drives, then Air Force 9, Baylor 7
Air Force Punt, 4 plays
12:131st & 10 at own 7Haaziq Daniels run for 11 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down
11:321st & 10 at own 18John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 20
11:012nd & 8 at own 20Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 20
10:283rd & 8 at own 20Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Amari Terry
10:184th & 8 at own 20Carson Bay punt for 30 yds, downed at the 50 yard line
Baylor Missed FG, 5 plays
10:041st & 10 at the 50Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 31 yds to the AFA 19 for a 1ST down
9:311st & 10 at opp 19Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron
9:172nd & 10 at opp 19Richard Reese run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 20
8:413rd & 11 at opp 20Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for no gain to the AFA 20
8:114th & 11 at opp 20John Mayers 38 yd FG MISSED
Air Force Turnover on downs, 10 plays
7:561st & 10 at own 20DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the AFA 27
7:072nd & 3 at own 27Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 27
6:323rd & 3 at own 27DeAndre Hughes run for 4 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down
5:461st & 10 at own 31Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 32
5:062nd & 9 at own 32Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the AFA 40
4:183rd & 1 at own 40Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down
3:441st & 10 at own 43Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the AFA 46
3:082nd & 7 at own 46Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the Bayl 48
2:163rd & 1 at opp 48Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 48
1:404th & 1 at opp 48Haaziq Daniels run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 47
Baylor Touchdown, 6 plays
1:241st & 10 at opp 47BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Bayl 43
1:111st & 20 at own 43Qualan Jones run for 4 yds to the Bayl 47
0:542nd & 16 at own 47Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the AFA 39
0:543rd & 2 at opp 39Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:54
0:453rd & 2 at opp 39Qualan Jones run for no gain to the AFA 39
0:294th & 2 at opp 39Qualan Jones run for 5 yds to the AFA 34 for a 1ST down
0:181st & 10 at opp 34Blake Shapen pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down
0:181st & 10 at opp 23Timeout BAYLOR, clock 00:18
0:181st & 10 at opp 23Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:18
0:121st & 10 at opp 23Shapen, Blake pass incomplete to Presley, Hal, PENALTY AIRFORCE pass interference (Mack II, Michael) 15 yards to the AIRFORCE8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BAYLOR.
0:061st & 10 at own 35Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
Baylor Touchdown, 6 plays
0:061st & goal at opp 8Blake Shapen pass complete to Hal Presley for 8 yds for a TDAir Force 9, Baylor 7
Air Force End of half, 1 play
0:001st & 10 at own 25TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24
3rd quarter7 drives, then Air Force 23, Baylor 7
Air Force Touchdown, 5 plays
15:001st & 10 at own 35Noah Rauschenberg kickoff for 48 yds , Brad Roberts return for no gain to the AFA 17
14:321st & 10 at own 17Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 17
14:102nd & 10 at own 17John Lee Eldridge III run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 15
13:223rd & 12 at own 15Haaziq Daniels run for 15 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down
12:571st & 10 at own 30Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Amari Terry for 68 yds to the Bayl 2 for a 1ST down
12:281st & goal at opp 2Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Air Force 16, Baylor 7
Baylor Punt, 7 plays
12:281st & 10 at own 35Matthew Dapore kickoff for 59 yds , Craig Williams return for 19 yds to the Bayl 25
12:161st & 10 at own 25Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 29
11:402nd & 6 at own 29Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the Bayl 33
11:003rd & 2 at own 33Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Ben Sims
10:534th & 2 at own 33Craig Williams run for 2 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down
10:211st & 10 at own 35Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the Bayl 37
9:502nd & 8 at own 37Richard Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Bayl 34
9:153rd & 11 at own 34Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson
9:044th & 11 at own 34Issac Power punt for 39 yds, downed at the AFA 27
Air Force Punt, 3 plays
8:521st & 10 at own 27DeAndre Hughes run for 3 yds to the AFA 30
8:272nd & 7 at own 30John Lee Eldridge III run for 2 yds to the AFA 32
7:513rd & 5 at own 32John Lee Eldridge III run for 1 yd to the AFA 33
7:154th & 4 at own 33Carson Bay punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 44
Baylor Turnover on downs, 4 plays
7:101st & 10 at opp 44Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Josh Cameron
7:032nd & 10 at opp 44Craig Williams run for 1 yd to the AFA 43
6:233rd & 9 at opp 43Craig Williams run for 5 yds to the AFA 38
5:504th & 4 at opp 38Blake Shapen run for 2 yds to the AFA 36
Air Force Touchdown, 7 plays
5:431st & 10 at own 36Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to David Cormier
5:362nd & 10 at own 36Haaziq Daniels run for 12 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down
5:021st & 10 at own 48Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 47
4:222nd & 5 at opp 47John Lee Eldridge III run for 20 yds to the Bayl 27 for a 1ST down
3:401st & 10 at opp 27John Lee Eldridge III run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24
3:112nd & 7 at opp 24John Lee Eldridge III run for 9 yds to the Bayl 15 for a 1ST down
2:291st & 10 at opp 15Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Caleb Rillos for 15 yds for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Air Force 23, Baylor 7
Baylor Turnover on downs, 4 plays
2:291st & 9 at own 35Matthew Dapore kickoff for 55 yds , Craig Williams return for 36 yds to the Bayl 46
2:151st & 10 at own 46Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Hal Presley
2:022nd & 10 at own 46Richard Reese run for no gain to the Bayl 46
1:273rd & 10 at own 46Qualan Jones run for 3 yds to the Bayl 49
0:554th & 7 at own 49Blake Shapen sacked by Vince Sanford for a loss of 7 yards to the Bayl 42
Air Force Touchdown, 7 plays
0:441st & 10 at opp 42Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Bayl 35
0:162nd & 3 at opp 35Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 30 for a 1ST down
Q4 14:411st & 10 at opp 30Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the Bayl 23
Q4 14:142nd & 3 at opp 23Brad Roberts run for 11 yds to the Bayl 12 for a 1ST down
Q4 13:311st & 10 at opp 12Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 9
Q4 13:162nd & 7 at opp 9BAYLOR Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jaxon Player) to the Bayl 4
Q4 13:062nd & 2 at opp 4Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 1 for a 1ST down
Q4 12:401st & goal at opp 1Brad Roberts run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Dapore KICK)Air Force 30, Baylor 7
4th quarter5 drives, then Air Force 30, Baylor 15
Baylor Turnover on downs, 5 plays
12:401st & 10 at own 35Matthew Dapore kickoff for 44 yds , Ben Sims return for no gain to the Bayl 21
12:241st & 10 at own 21Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 20 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down
12:061st & 10 at own 41Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Richard Reese
12:002nd & 10 at own 41Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the Bayl 44
11:173rd & 7 at own 44Blake Shapen run for 3 yds to the Bayl 47
10:524th & 4 at own 47Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Qualan Jones
Air Force Turnover on downs, 10 plays
10:411st & 10 at opp 47Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 43
9:542nd & 6 at opp 43Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 40
9:173rd & 3 at opp 40Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down
8:121st & 10 at opp 35Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 31
7:522nd & 6 at opp 31Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 27
7:113rd & 2 at opp 27Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 24 for a 1ST down
6:321st & 10 at opp 24Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Bayl 23
5:492nd & 9 at opp 23Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the Bayl 18
4:563rd & 4 at opp 18Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 15
4:254th & 1 at opp 15Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 15
Baylor Touchdown, 4 plays
4:151st & 10 at own 15Blake Shapen pass complete to Jaylen Ellis for 57 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down
3:581st & 10 at opp 28Blake Shapen pass complete to Kelsey Johnson for 14 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down
3:411st & 10 at opp 14Blake Shapen pass incomplete to Kelsey Johnson
3:342nd & 10 at opp 14Blake Shapen pass complete to Gavin Holmes for 14 yds for a TD, (B. Shapen Run For Two-point Conversion)Air Force 30, Baylor 15
Air Force Turnover on downs, 8 plays
3:342nd & 10 at own 35Noah Rauschenberg on-side kick recovered by AIR FORCE at the Bayl 49
3:261st & 10 at opp 49Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the Bayl 46
3:262nd & 7 at opp 46Timeout BAYLOR, clock 03:26
3:212nd & 7 at opp 46Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 42
3:213rd & 3 at opp 42Timeout BAYLOR, clock 03:21
3:153rd & 3 at opp 42Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40
3:154th & 1 at opp 40Timeout BAYLOR, clock 03:15
3:104th & 1 at opp 40Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the Bayl 38 for a 1ST down
2:241st & 10 at opp 38Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 34
1:552nd & 6 at opp 34Brad Roberts run for no gain to the Bayl 34
1:153rd & 6 at opp 34Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 01:15
1:083rd & 6 at opp 34Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the Bayl 30
0:284th & 2 at opp 30Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:28
0:224th & 2 at opp 30Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the Bayl 29
Baylor End of game, 1 play
0:061st & 10 at own 29Blake Shapen sacked by Peyton Zdroik for a loss of 6 yards to the Bayl 23

Play-by-play from CollegeFootballData.com, as its scorers wrote it. The clock is the time left in the quarter; the spot is from the side of the team with the ball.

The series

Every Baylor–Air Force game

Baylor leads 4–⁠1 in five meetings, counting the one since this game.

Recent meetings
2024Baylor 31, Air Force 3
2022Air Force 30, Baylor 15Armed Forces Bowl
1977Baylor 38, Air Force 7
1962Baylor 10, Air Force 3
1961Baylor 31, Air Force 7

Around this game

Baylor

Air Force