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2018 North Carolina

2–⁠9 (1–⁠7 Atlantic Coast Conference), coached by Larry Fedora.

Schedule and results

North Carolina in 2018, game by game: lost at California 17–24; lost at East Carolina 19–41; won vs. Pittsburgh 38–35; lost at No. 16 Miami 10–47; lost vs. Virginia Tech 19–22; lost at Syracuse 37–40; lost at Virginia 21–31; lost vs. Georgia Tech 28–38; lost at Duke 35–42; won vs. Western Carolina 49–26; lost vs. NC State 28–34+23−37Lost 17–24 at California-7CaliforniaLost 19–41 at East Carolina-22East CarolinaWon 38–35 vs. Pittsburgh+3PittsburghLost 10–47 at No. 16 Miami-37No. 16 MiamiLost 19–22 vs. Virginia Tech-3Virginia TechLost 37–40 at Syracuse-3SyracuseLost 21–31 at Virginia-10VirginiaLost 28–38 vs. Georgia Tech-10Georgia TechLost 35–42 at Duke-7DukeWon 49–26 vs. Western Carolina+23Western CarolinaLost 28–34 vs. NC State-6NC State
Each game’s margin, wins above the line and losses below.
DateOpponentResultElo
Sep 1atCaliforniaL 17–⁠2438%
Sep 8atEast CarolinaL 19–⁠4154%
Sep 22vsPittsburghW 38–⁠3545%
Sep 27at16MiamiL 10–⁠4719%
Oct 13vsVirginia TechL 19–⁠2235%
Oct 20atSyracuseL 37–⁠4031%
Oct 27atVirginiaL 21–⁠3124%
Nov 3vsGeorgia TechL 28–⁠3835%
Nov 10atDukeL 35–⁠4219%
Nov 17vsWestern CarolinaW 49–⁠2680%
Nov 24vsNC StateL 28–⁠3426%

Elo: a pregame chance from scores alone.

How it ended: Lost to NC State 34–⁠28; unranked in the final AP poll; 13th in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

In program history: The 120th-best season in program history by end-of-season Elo (of 127 on file).

Record
2–⁠9
Conference
1–⁠7 13th in Atlantic Coast Conference
AP final
Unranked
Points
301–⁠380
Coach
Larry Fedora
Elo
1389 −95 this season
SP+ rating
-2.5 No. 88 of 130; offense No. 57, defense No. 94, special teams No. 87
SRS
−6.8 No. 95 of 130 in FBS
Returning
82% of last season’s EPA, No. 22 of 130
Recruiting class
No. 20 roster talent No. 28 in FBS
Offensive coordinator
Chris Kapilovic
Defensive coordinator
John Papuchis
Captains
Malik Carney, Michael Carter, Nathan Elliott, Cole Holcomb and Thomas Jackson
Offense
Spread
Defense
4–⁠3

How good, play by play

  • Offense107th of 130
  • Defense96th of 130
  • Offense, opponent-adjusted92nd of 130
  • Defense, opponent-adjusted105th of 130
EPA per playSuccessExplosivenessFBS rank
Offense0.0141%1.23107th of 130
Defense0.1744%1.2196th of 130
Opponent-adjusted0.06 off
0.16 def		43% off
43% def		—92nd off
105th def
How these are measured

Play-weighted averages over games against FBS opponents; raw numbers, not adjusted for the strength of the opponent. EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changed the expected score; success rate counts plays that kept the offense on schedule; explosiveness is the average EPA on successful plays. Lower is better on defense. Ranked by EPA per play among teams that were FBS that season. The opponent-adjusted row (offense / defense) is CollegeFootballData.com’s WEPA, which accounts for who each team played.

Drives and havoc

Points per trip inside the 40Average startHavoc
Offense3.1own 2816% allowed
Defense3.6own 3117% caused

CORE rating -4.8, 95th of 130 (offense -1.4, defense 3.4).

A trip inside the 40 is a drive that reaches the opponent’s 40-yard line; points per trip is how many it scored on average (allowed, on defense). Average start is where drives began (the defense’s line is where its opponents started). Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up. CORE is CollegeFootballData.com’s context- and opponent-adjusted rating (points better than an average team; lower is better on defense). From CollegeFootballData.com.

Leaders

Passing yardsNathan Elliott QB2,178 yds
Passing touchdownsNathan Elliott QB11 TD
Rushing yardsMichael Carter RB597 yds
Rushing touchdownsAntonio Williams RB5 TD
Receiving yardsAnthony Ratliff-Williams WR696 yds
Receiving touchdownsAnthony Ratliff-Williams WR2 TD
TacklesCole Holcomb LB104 tkl
SacksMalik Carney DE6.5 sacks
InterceptionsMyles Dorn DB2 INT

Top recruits in the 2018 class

William Barnes OT★★★★No. 53
Jordyn Adams WR★★★★No. 58
Dyami Brown ATH★★★★No. 181
Brant Lawless-Sherrill DT★★★★No. 256
Avery Jones OG★★★★No. 285
Jace Ruder DUAL★★★★No. 336
Antoine Green WR★★★★No. 350

247Sports composite rankings via CollegeFootballData.com; national rank in the class.

The 2018 class by position

SignedStarsRating
Quarterbacks23.50.882
Running backs23.00.859
Receivers24.00.932
Offensive line43.50.901
Defensive line53.20.866
Linebackers23.00.853
Defensive backs33.00.847
Athletes and specialists23.50.894
Whole class223.30.878

High-school signees by position group, with their average stars and 247Sports composite rating (out of 1), via CollegeFootballData.com. Athletes are signees with no set position.

Drafted in 2019

The 2019 draft
Rd 5Cole Holcomb OLBWashington Redskins

Roster 109

The 2018 roster

109 players, with numbers, heights, hometowns and each player’s 2018 line; 62 have a stat line. See the roster

2018 Atlantic Coast Conference standings

Conference page
TeamConf.OverallAP final
Clemson8–⁠015–⁠01
Syracuse6–⁠210–⁠315
Pittsburgh6–⁠27–⁠7
NC State5–⁠39–⁠4
Georgia Tech5–⁠37–⁠6
Virginia4–⁠48–⁠5
Boston College4–⁠47–⁠5
Miami4–⁠47–⁠6
Virginia Tech4–⁠46–⁠7
Duke3–⁠58–⁠5
Wake Forest3–⁠57–⁠6
Florida State3–⁠55–⁠7
North Carolina1–⁠72–⁠9
Louisville0–⁠82–⁠10

Ordered by conference winning percentage, then conference wins. Division splits and tiebreakers aren’t applied.