CollegeFootballDigestfrom CooperSearch

2025 Arkansas State

7–⁠6 (5–⁠3 Sun Belt Conference), coached by Butch Jones.

Schedule and results

Arkansas State in 2025, game by game: won vs. Southeast Missouri State 42–24; lost vs. Arkansas 14–56; lost vs. No. 14 Iowa State 16–24; lost at Kennesaw State 21–28; lost at UL Monroe 16–28; won vs. Texas State 31–30; won at South Alabama 15–14; won vs. Georgia Southern 34–24; won at Troy 23–10; lost vs. Southern Miss 21–27; lost vs. Louisiana 30–34; won at App State 30–29; won vs. Missouri State 34–28+18−42Won 42–24 vs. Southeast Missouri State+18Southeast Misso…Lost 14–56 vs. Arkansas-42ArkansasLost 16–24 vs. No. 14 Iowa State-8No. 14 Iowa StateLost 21–28 at Kennesaw State-7Kennesaw StateLost 16–28 at UL Monroe-12UL MonroeWon 31–30 vs. Texas State+1Texas StateWon 15–14 at South Alabama+1South AlabamaWon 34–24 vs. Georgia Southern+10Georgia SouthernWon 23–10 at Troy+13TroyLost 21–27 vs. Southern Miss-6Southern MissLost 30–34 vs. Louisiana-4LouisianaWon 30–29 at App State+1App StateWon 34–28 vs. Missouri State+6Missouri State
Each game’s margin, wins above the line and losses below.
DateOpponentResultElo
Aug 30vsSoutheast Missouri StateW 42–⁠2476%
Sep 6vsArkansasL 14–⁠5645%
Sep 13vs14Iowa StateL 16–⁠2435%
Sep 20atKennesaw StateL 21–⁠2863%
Sep 27atUL MonroeL 16–⁠2842%
Oct 4vsTexas StateW 31–⁠3036%
Oct 14atSouth AlabamaW 15–⁠1440%
Oct 25vsGeorgia SouthernW 34–⁠2451%
Nov 1atTroyW 23–⁠1026%
Nov 8vsSouthern MissL 21–⁠2759%
Nov 20vsLouisianaL 30–⁠3456%
Nov 29atApp StateW 30–⁠2942%
Dec 18Bowls & playoffvsMissouri StateXbox BowlW 34–⁠2857%

Elo: a pregame chance from scores alone.

How it ended: Beat Missouri State 34–⁠28 in the Xbox Bowl; unranked in the final AP poll; tied for 4th in the Sun Belt Conference.

In program history: The 15th-best season in program history by end-of-season Elo (of 84 on file).

Record
7–⁠6
Conference
5–⁠3 tied for 4th in Sun Belt Conference
AP final
Unranked
Points
327–⁠356
Coach
Butch Jones
Elo
1476 −17 this season
SP+ rating
-8.8 No. 100 of 136; offense No. 90, defense No. 111, special teams No. 62
SRS
−10.2 No. 105 of 136 in FBS
Returning
59% of last season’s EPA, No. 28 of 134
Recruiting class
No. 75 roster talent No. 88 in FBS
Offensive coordinator
Keith Heckendorf
Defensive coordinator
Griff McCarley
Offense
Power spread
Defense
4–⁠2–⁠5

How good, play by play

  • Offense96th of 136
  • Defense106th of 136
  • Offense, opponent-adjusted118th of 136
  • Defense, opponent-adjusted104th of 136
EPA per playSuccessExplosivenessFBS rank
Offense0.0341%1.1496th of 136
Defense0.1644%1.29106th of 136
Opponent-adjusted-0.02 off
0.16 def		39% off
45% def		—118th off
104th def

Passing and running

Pass successDepth of targetDeep throwsLine yardsStuffed
Offense46%9.2 yds13%2.9017%
Defense48%7.9 yds13%3.2015%
How these are measured

Play-weighted averages over games against FBS opponents; raw numbers, not adjusted for the strength of the opponent. EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changed the expected score; success rate counts plays that kept the offense on schedule; explosiveness is the average EPA on successful plays. Lower is better on defense. Ranked by EPA per play among teams that were FBS that season. The opponent-adjusted row (offense / defense) is CollegeFootballData.com’s WEPA, which accounts for who each team played. Passing and running: depth of target is how far downfield passes traveled in the air; deep throws are the share thrown deep, of the passes whose depth and direction the play-by-play describes (about half); line yards are the running yards per carry credited to the blockers; stuffed is the share of carries stopped at or behind the line. The defense’s line is what its opponents did. From CollegeFootballData.com, 2025 on.

Drives and havoc

Points per trip inside the 40Average startHavoc
Offense3.3own 3018% allowed
Defense3.9own 2816% caused

CORE rating -17.0, 119th of 136 (offense -10.4, defense 6.5).

A trip inside the 40 is a drive that reaches the opponent’s 40-yard line; points per trip is how many it scored on average (allowed, on defense). Average start is where drives began (the defense’s line is where its opponents started). Havoc is the share of plays ending in a tackle for loss, a forced fumble, an interception or a pass broken up. CORE is CollegeFootballData.com’s context- and opponent-adjusted rating (points better than an average team; lower is better on defense). From CollegeFootballData.com.

Leaders

Passing yardsJaylen Raynor QB3,364 yds
Passing touchdownsJaylen Raynor QB19 TD
Rushing yardsDevin Spencer RB559 yds
Rushing touchdownsJaylen Raynor QB7 TD
Receiving yardsCorey Rucker WR1,029 yds
Receiving touchdownsCorey Rucker WR4 TD
TacklesAaron Alexander LB92 tkl
SacksDemarcus Hendricks DE8.5 sacks
InterceptionsAvante Dickerson CB2 INT

Top recruits in the 2025 class

Romel Stevens WR★★★No. 1293
Ryan Reese DL★★★No. 1325
Marquis Williams CB★★★No. 1325
Ronnie Blossom DE★★★No. 1419
Nigel Nelson LB★★★No. 1540

247Sports composite rankings via CollegeFootballData.com; national rank in the class.

The 2025 class by position

SignedStarsRating
Quarterbacks13.00.850
Running backs23.00.835
Receivers33.00.850
Offensive line43.00.830
Defensive line62.80.840
Linebackers23.00.853
Defensive backs53.00.847
Athletes and specialists13.00.853
Whole class243.00.843

High-school signees by position group, with their average stars and 247Sports composite rating (out of 1), via CollegeFootballData.com. Athletes are signees with no set position.

Roster 123

The 2025 roster

123 players, with numbers, heights, hometowns and each player’s 2025 line; 63 have a stat line. See the roster

Transfers in 32

The 2025 portal
J.J. Harrell WR★★★from Mississippi State
Aaron Alexander LB★★★from Michigan State
Jaylen Bonelli WR★★★from Wagner
Kobe Williams OL★★★from Memphis
Zuri Madison OL★★★from Arkansas
Gabe Fortson OL★★★from Tulane
Gavin Ransaw DL★★★from Coastal Carolina
Jax Brown QB★★★from Sam Houston
Kenyon Clay RB★★★from Southern Miss
Nazeviah Burris WR★★★from Florida International
Quan Lee WR★★★from Florida A&M
Wil Saxton OL★★★from Southern Miss

And 20 more, lower-rated or unrated.

Transfers out 29

Makilan Thomas OL★★★to Virginia
Dontay Joyner S★★★to Maryland
Ian Jeffries DL★★★to Purdue
Mike Peterson Jr. WR★★★to Florida
Timmy McClain QB★★★to Bethune-Cookman
Kwon McGinney DL★★★to Georgia Southern
Elijah Zollicoffer OL★★★to Kennesaw State
Miller McCrumby TE★★★to South Alabama
Wyatt Wright LB★★★no new school on file
Orlando Daniels DE★★★to Chattanooga
A.J. Wallace S★★★to Chattanooga
Bobby Engstler P★★★no new school on file

And 17 more, lower-rated or unrated.

2025 Sun Belt Conference standings

Conference page
TeamConf.OverallAP final
James Madison8–⁠012–⁠219
Old Dominion6–⁠210–⁠3
Troy6–⁠28–⁠6
Arkansas State5–⁠37–⁠6
Southern Miss5–⁠37–⁠6
Coastal Carolina5–⁠36–⁠7
Louisiana5–⁠36–⁠7
Georgia Southern4–⁠47–⁠6
Texas State3–⁠57–⁠6
Marshall3–⁠55–⁠7
South Alabama3–⁠54–⁠8
App State2–⁠65–⁠8
UL Monroe1–⁠73–⁠9
Georgia State0–⁠81–⁠11

Ordered by conference winning percentage, then conference wins. Division splits and tiebreakers aren’t applied.