Messiah Burch

Expected points added: how much the player’s plays moved the team’s expected score, per play and in total. Plays: total EPA divided by EPA per play, the plays the source credits to him (for a receiver roughly his catches and runs, not every target; for a passer, not every attempt), so it can differ from attempts plus carries. Percentile: against the position’s regulars that season across all divisions on file (quarterbacks with 150+ plays, backs 60+, receivers and tight ends 30+), with how many there were (n) and their median; a dash means too few plays to rank. A season in progress uses the full-season bar scaled by games played, never below 75 plays for quarterbacks, 30 for backs and 20 for receivers. The cohort grows or shrinks with the source’s coverage each season (2025 lists far more players), so compare percentiles rather than raw EPA across years. FCS seasons are marked. Usage: the share of the team’s plays the player was part of (shown from 20 plays). Adjusted pass and rush: EPA per play adjusted for the defenses faced (CollegeFootballData’s WEPA). From CollegeFootballData, 2013 on.

Where his yards came from, per carry: line yards are the ones credited to the blockers (the first few, and losses), second level the yards 5 to 10 past the line, open field those beyond 10. Success: carries that kept the offense on schedule. Stuffed: carries stopped at or behind the line. From CollegeFootballData, FBS games, 2025 on.

2026 Buffalo 7 games, 661 rushing yards, 2 TD

Date	Opponent	Result	Car	Yds	TD	Long	Rec	Rec yds
Sep 3	vs.UAlbany	W 21–⁠17	8	74	0	47	–	–
Sep 12	atFlorida International	L 20–⁠33	10	16	0	8	2	6
Sep 19	atPenn State	L 13–⁠55	6	10	0	4	2	3
Sep 26	vs.Robert Morris	W 31–⁠28	26	146	0	43	1	9
Oct 3	vs.Western Michigan	L 17–⁠20	23	106	1	16	1	−5
Oct 10	atToledo	W 23–⁠8	17	137	1	87	–	–
Oct 17	vs.Massachusetts	W 25–⁠18	28	172	0	46	–	–

2025 Buffalo 6 games, 41 rushing yards

Date	Opponent	Result	Car	Yds	TD	Long	Rec	Rec yds
Aug 28	atMinnesota	L 10–⁠23	2	−4	0	1	2	−1
Sep 6	vs.SFSaint Francis	W 45–⁠6	4	39	0	14	1	−2
Sep 13	atKent State	W 31–⁠28	1	7	0	7	–	–
Sep 20	vs.Troy	L 17–⁠21	1	6	0	6	1	2
Oct 25	vs.Akron	L 16–⁠24	1	−5	0	0	–	–
Nov 28	vs.Ohio	L 26–⁠31	2	−2	0	0	–	–

2024 Buffalo 13 games, 153 rushing yards, 2 TD

Date	Opponent	Result	Car	Yds	TD	Long	Rec	Rec yds
Aug 29	vs.Lafayette	W 30–⁠13	1	0	0	0	–	–
Sep 7	atMissouri	L 0–⁠38	2	2	0	1	1	12
Sep 14	vs.Massachusetts	W 34–⁠3	–	–	–	–	2	19
Sep 21	atNorthern Illinois	W 23–⁠20	2	9	0	7	–	–
Sep 28	atUConn	L 3–⁠47	3	15	0	14	–	–
Oct 12	vs.Toledo	W 30–⁠15	4	34	0	13	1	30
Oct 19	vs.Western Michigan	L 41–⁠48	6	58	1	31	1	24
Oct 26	atOhio	L 16–⁠47	1	27	1	27	1	3
Nov 2	atAkron	W 41–⁠30	3	5	0	4	–	–
Nov 12	vs.Ball State	W 51–⁠48	2	10	0	15	–	–
Nov 20	atEastern Michigan	W 37–⁠20	1	4	0	4	1	5
Nov 26	vs.Kent State	W 43–⁠7	1	−7	0	0	1	4
Jan 4 ✦	vs.Liberty	W 26–⁠7	3	−4	0	4	1	2

Box scores from CollegeFootballData, 2004 on. ✦ postseason; ★ a career high on file.